The focus of this paper is to determine the extent international remittance inflows predict the growth of Nigeria’s domestic economy ranging from 1980 to 2019. To achieve such objective, the author adopted VEC Granger causality test for estimation of the parameters specified in the models. This is complimented with other standard econometric pretests and posttests such as unit root tests, co integration tests as well as vector error correction model to determine the properties of the time series data used for the analysis. The result of the analysis indicates that the series employed for the analysis exhibits longrun co integration. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)results also show a negative significant relationship between international remittance inflows and real gross domestic product in the short run as indicated by at statistics coefficient of 6.874905 and a pvalue of 0.0087. Consequently, from the long run result of the VECM, international remittance inflow maintained a negative relationship with economic growth in the long run. The Wald test indicates no causality among RGDP, IRIGWT, ODAGNI, BOT and INF. VECM in the second equation of the study shows a positive insignificant relationship between international remittance inflows and domestic credit to private sector in the short run within the period under consideration with a t statistics of 0.053623 and pvalue of 0.6807. However,from the long run result of the VECM in the second equation,international remittance inflows indicate a negative relationship with domestic credit to the private sector in the long run. The result of the error correction model in the short run as indicated by the lower chamber of VECM showed a positive significant correlation between overseas development assistance and gross domestic product as indicated by the t statistics of 8.643742 and pvalue of 0.0097. The result from the upper chamber of the VECM indicates a negative relationship between overseas development assistance and economic growth in the long run.The implication of the study is that international remittance inflows have not translated considerably to the growth of Nigerian economy. In view of the above findings, the study makes the following recommendations: the federal government should adopt strict policy measures to regulate international remittance inflows to Nigeria by ensuring proper investment of greater percentage of all remittances. This can be done by insisting that all remittance above certain level be accompanied with an investment plan or properly taxed. In order to encourage remittances passing through the official channel, the Central Bank of Nigeria should ensure that transaction cost of international remittance inflows are kept very minimal.
Keywords: Remittance inflows, VectorError correction model, Granger Causality, Waldtest, Correlation,
Titus Chinweuba Eze. Modeling the Relationship between Remittance Inflows and the Growth of Nigeria’s Domestic Economy: VEC Granger Causality Test Approach. Journal of Money, Banking and Finance, Vol. 6, No. 2, 2020, pp. 99-122